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Two years into a landmark merger, Delta Air Lines has arrived at a crossroads in its quest to absorb Northwest Airlines and a heavily unionized workforce.

In representation elections starting this week with flight attendants, as many as 50,000 employees will be asked to cast their lots with labor or management.

At stake is Delta’s status as the last mainline carrier where organized labor’s presence is minimal; Delta pilots are unionized, but flight attendants, ramp workers and others weren’t until Northwest came into the fold in 2008.

It’s also seen as a test of the Obama administration’s ability to help labor, a key Democratic constituency, reverse its declining fortunes.

About 20,000 flight attendants, including 320 based in Memphis, will vote Wednesday through Nov. 3. The election, requested by the Association of Flight Attendants, is the first under new, more labor-friendly rules established by the National Mediation Board.

The NMB also has set an election for 14,000 ramp workers, including about 500 here, from Oct. 14-Nov. 18, for the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers.

The elections affect Memphis because Delta succeeded Northwest as dominant carrier at Memphis International Airport. As many as 1,000 former Northwest employees are based in the city, ranging from flight attendants to ramp workers to reservation agents, and would lose their union if Delta management wins out.

The elections come under a new rule enacted by NMB members friendly to airline labor groups. A simple majority, 50 percent plus one, of voting employees can now approve union representation. The rule is under appeal by the industry’s Air Transport Association.

Under previous rules, a majority of employees had to approve a union, so not participating in the election was the same as voting no.

Shawn Fivecoat, a Memphis-based Delta flight attendant, said the rule has changed the message employees are getting from Delta management in company meetings and a barrage of mailings.

In past elections managers encouraged employees not to vote, said Fivecoat, a former Northwest employee who is president of AFA’s Memphis unit. “Their message now is, ‘Everyone must vote.’ “

Fivecoat sees the new rule as more democratic. “The old way, we started out with 20,000 ‘no’ votes. It was the only election you could ever find that was run that way. Now, when the polls are turned on, it’s 0-0.”

Delta managers are “communicating our viewpoint as well as the fact that the rules have changed,” said Delta spokeswoman Betsy Talton. “That means it is important that everyone does vote.”

Talton said, “Delta respects employees’ right to decide if representation is right for them. We also have a strong opinion that Delta has a unique culture that has worked well for us for more than 80 years and that culture is worth preserving.”

While union-represented workers are a third or less of Delta’s workforce, some analysts see the NMB rule change as a potential game-changer.

“I would say it’s going to be close,” said Seth Kaplan, managing director of Airline Weekly. “You can almost count on the majority of Delta people preferring to remain non-union and the majority of Northwest preferring to remain union. The new rules could be enough to tip the balance in favor of the union.”

Vaughn Cordle, an analyst with AirlineForecast LLC, said he believes the unions will prevail, aided by the rule change. If the unions win, Cordle and other analysts see changes ahead for Delta’s workplace culture and cost structure.

“The problem Delta faces is not one of higher costs per se,” Cordle said. “It’s the impact of that negative culture that gets on the property. In my view, with the cultural impact it will have on this historically non-union, Southern culture, a better employee-management relationship will change to an ‘us versus them’ culture.”

On the other hand, Kaplan said, “Unions don’t necessarily equal acrimony. Southwest is a very heavily unionized airline, but it has some of the best labor relations not only in the airline industry but in American business.”

Cordle suggested unionization could carry a higher pricetag than Delta is saying. Workers at Delta and Northwest took major pay and benefit cuts when the companies were in bankruptcy earlier this decade. Higher costs could creep in as employees seek through bargaining to recoup some of their losses, he believes.

Mark Kiefer, an aviation industry consultant, said, “In terms of the potential impact, it’s probably fair to say further unionization is not likely to lower the airline’s costs, it probably will increase it, but that depends on the kind of bargaining position the union will have if the union goes through.”

Talton said, “We do not believe the outcome of union elections would materially change our cost projections.”

Former Northwest employees in Memphis said they want to keep benefits that are typically better than those of non-union counterparts at Delta, while strengthening the union’s muscle in bargaining.

“Flight attendants have taken huge pay cuts, no question about it,” Fivecoat said. “But for the management, this election is not about money. It’s about control. They want to be able to make decisions and changes at will.”

Edwin Feliu, whose Memphis local of the machinists’ union represents about 750 ramp workers and others, said employees don’t want to give up union-negotiated benefits such as subsidized retiree medical benefits, lower health care premiums and more vacation.

–Wayne Risher: 529-2874

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