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WASHINGTON — Tennessee is one of five states that could have its bond issue ratings downgraded if the U.S. can’t resolve the debate over raising the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling, Moody’s Investors Service said Tuesday, citing the state’s dependence on federal revenue.

“While all states are indirectly linked to the U.S. government to some degree, we have identified the five Aaa states that are most vulnerable to changes in the U.S. government rating,” said Nicholas Samuels, a vice president in Moody’s state ratings team.

In concrete terms, that means borrowing costs for the state and for local governments, including Memphis and Shelby County, can be expected to rise, said John Gnuschke, director of the Sparks Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Memphis.

Gnuschke attributed the likelihood of a debt downgrade to the perception that Tennessee is in a kind of political impasse tied to no-tax-increase pledges by politicians, a factor Moody’s did not mention.

“If we lack the ability or the willingness to pay for the debts of the state of Tennessee, then in fact our costs of borrowing will escalate, if we can borrow at all,” he said.

No tax increase pledges “ought to be a red flag to any lender,” he added. “I think lenders count onmunities to raise taxes if, in fact, they have to do that to meet their debt obligations.”

Tennesseeptroller of the Treasury Justin P. Wilson released a statement after Moody’s made its announcement. “While we think Tennessee is deserving of a continued triple-A rating, if a downgrade occurs as a result of the lowering of the federal rating, you can make no mistake: Tennessee will meet its obligations.”

Tennessee is one of 15 states with bonds rated Aaa. Besides the Volunteer State, Maryland, New Mexico, South Carolina and Virginia were given notice Tuesday that their ratings are under review for a possible downgrade.

Specifically, Tennessee was singled out because of:

Above-average sensitivity to national economic trends regarding employment volatility;

Above-average federal employees as a percentage of the state’s total employment;

Above-average amount of “puttable” variable-rate debt outstanding;

Federal procurement contracts as a percentage of the state’s gross domestic product;

Medicaid as a percentage of total expenditures; and

Below-average fund balances as a percentage of operating revenue.

Moody’s said that if the U.S. government’s Aaa rating is downgraded due to a default following failure to raise the debt ceiling, the rating agency would not automatically downgrade the five states’ bonds, but would proceed on a case-by-case basis.

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